The global upstream oil and gas merger-and-acquisition (M&A) market is set to cool in 2026, with activity expected to dip below 2025 levels despite nearly $152 billion in available opportunities as of January, according to a Rystad Energy analysis.
“Rystad Energy expects North America to remain the clear anchor for upstream M&A activity in 2026, with deal flow increasingly shaped by a new phase of a ‘merger of equals’ consolidation among small- and mid-cap listed US shale producers,” Atul Raina, vice president, oil and gas M&A, said in the analysis.
This is further supported by ample private E&P capital yet to be deployed, ongoing consolidation in Canada’s Montney shale, and rising interest in gas and LNG-linked assets—particularly from Asian buyers seeking long-term security of supply.
The international M&A landscape, in stark contrast, continues to be inconsistent.
Although many potential deals exist, overall momentum is constrained because activity is largely focused on a small number of high-value and frequently intricate transactions.
National oil companies (NOCs) from the Middle East, Asia, and South America are expected to be more active players in the market.
This increased participation is driven by their ongoing desire for greater scale and international exposure, especially as many International Oil Companies (IOCs) maintain a selective approach, according to Raina.
2025 market review and key deals
In 2025, global upstream Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) activity decreased by 17% year-on-year (YoY), totaling approximately $170 billion.
The number of deals also saw a decline of 12%, reaching 466.
Last year, several major trends defined the energy sector, including significant consolidation among North American shale producers, substantial investments in LNG projects across the US and Argentina, and major companies divesting assets in Asia and the UK to establish new regional joint ventures.
Key deals reflecting these themes include the SM Energy/Civitas merger, Cenovus Energy’s acquisition of MEG Energy, a Blackstone-led consortium’s purchase of a 49.9% stake in Port Arthur LNG phase 2 from Sempra Infrastructure Partners (SIP), the Eni/Petronas asset merger in Indonesia and Malaysia, and TotalEnergies merging its UK operations with NeoNext Energy to create NeoNext+.
Early in the year, significant updates in the energy sector include potential merger talks between Coterra Energy and Devon Energy, alongside Mitsubishi’s announced $7.5 billion acquisition of Aethon Energy.
The global activity outlook remains uncertain. The current pipeline of investment opportunities totals $55 billion.
This figure incorporates a $23.5 billion potential sale of Santos, as the company is open to offers, and $17 billion for Lukoil’s international upstream assets, Rystad Energy said.
Looking ahead, key buyers expected to emerge include national oil companies (NOCs) such as ADNOC, Saudi Aramco, Petronas, Petrobras, Pertamina, and Ecopetrol.
Regional activity and oil price volatility
In 2025, North America was the primary driver of activity, generating over $112 billion in deal value, which represented 66% of the global total, data from Rystad Energy showed.
Africa saw a 57% year-over-year drop to $6 billion. Europe’s deal value decreased by 24% year-over-year, reaching approximately $10 billion, the Norway-based energy intelligence agency said.
The Middle East recorded a significant 65% fall to nearly $4 billion. Oceania observed a sharp 96% drop to around $435 million, while Russia experienced a 25% decrease to nearly $750 million.
“This overall global decline is primarily attributed to low and volatile oil prices during 2025 that had a lasting negative impact on the buyer-seller spread,” the agency said.
Brent oil prices experienced significant fluctuation last year. Beginning at approximately $79 per barrel in January, prices dropped to about $65 per barrel by May.
They then rallied, climbing past $70 per barrel in June and July, before ultimately closing the year around $63 per barrel in December.
In December of the same year, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices had decreased to around $58 per barrel, starting from $75 per barrel at the beginning of the year.
Increased activity in Asia, South America
M&A activity saw an increase exclusively in Asia and South America. Asia experienced a more than threefold increase in deal value, reaching $18 billion, primarily due to the formation of a joint venture between Eni and Petronas.
Simultaneously, South America’s deal value rose by 71% year-over-year to $18.3 billion, driven by several LNG and Vaca Muerta-focused transactions in Argentina.
While global M&A activity in LNG is anticipated to fall short of last year’s figures, the market is still expected to be strong, Rystad said.
Currently, over $8.6 billion in LNG infrastructure assets are already available for acquisition.
The $8.6 billion in question does not account for the potential sale of Santos, following the withdrawal of the $23.6 billion bid by the ADNOC-led consortium, the agency said.
Separately, $2.5 billion in upstream assets that supply LNG plants are also available for sale.
Furthermore, among other possible deals, Energy Transfer is reportedly considering divesting an 80% stake in its pre-Final Investment Decision (FID) Lake Charles LNG project.
“In Argentina, YPF is reportedly seeking partners for its Argentina LNG project. Geographically, the US is likely to continue leading deal activity.” Rystad said.
Meanwhile, Middle Eastern NOCs such as Saudi Aramco and ADNOC are expected to remain active, having already acquired LNG assets globally and continuing to emerge as potential buyers for key opportunities.
The post Upstream oil & gas M&A likely to cool in 2026 despite $152B in opportunities appeared first on Invezz